Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Fire Flux#103 in the world · win 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Fire Flux pick
50%40%
Fire Flux · 10 mapsedge Fire Flux +10%GUESS · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
64%40%
Fire Flux · 7 mapsedge Fire Flux +24%GUESS · 1 map
MirageGUESS ban
44%50%
Fire Flux · 5 mapsedge GUESS +6%GUESS · 0 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
57%60%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsnearly even -3%GUESS · 1 map
CacheGUESS ban
38%50%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge GUESS +12%GUESS · 0 maps
InfernoGUESS pick
57%60%
Fire Flux · 3 mapsnearly even -3%GUESS · 1 map
NukeFire Flux ban
63%50%
Fire Flux · 4 mapsedge Fire Flux +13%GUESS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
2. BanGUESS remove Cache
3. PickFire Flux take Dust2
4. PickGUESS take Inferno
5. BanGUESS remove Mirage
6. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (64% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed16:14
Fire Flux 40%GUESS 60%
The model gave 60% on GUESS — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
Fire Flux 44%GUESS 56%
The model gave 56% on GUESS — the map was taken by Fire Flux.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 68%
Series resultFire Flux 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2