NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1win#33 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
53%63%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge 1win +10%1win · 15 maps
Dust21win pick
62%62%
Nemesis · 9 mapsnearly even +0%1win · 17 maps
MirageNemesis pick
64%50%
Nemesis · 7 mapsedge Nemesis +14%1win · 12 maps
Inferno1win ban
46%63%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge 1win +17%1win · 4 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
50%44%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Nemesis +6%1win · 12 maps
CacheNemesis ban
40%58%
Nemesis · 1 mapedge 1win +18%1win · 8 maps
Nuke1win ban
73%50%
Nemesis · 7 mapsedge Nemesis +23%1win · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. Ban1win remove Nuke
3. PickNemesis take Mirage
4. Pick1win take Dust2
5. Ban1win remove Inferno
6. BanNemesis remove Cache
DeciderAncient (53% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Nemesis 47%1win 53%
The model gave 53% on 1win — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
Nemesis 43%1win 57%
The model gave 57% on 1win — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 59%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2