NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Betclic#65 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBetclic pick
50%40%
100 Thieves · 6 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%Betclic · 11 maps
Ancientpossible decider
60%38%
100 Thieves · 11 mapsedge 100 Thieves +22%Betclic · 4 maps
Mirage100 Thieves ban
55%40%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge 100 Thieves +15%Betclic · 6 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
60%77%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge Betclic +17%Betclic · 9 maps
Dust2Betclic ban
80%38%
100 Thieves · 6 mapsedge 100 Thieves +42%Betclic · 4 maps
Inferno100 Thieves pick
55%29%
100 Thieves · 7 mapsedge 100 Thieves +26%Betclic · 3 maps
OverpassBetclic ban
60%38%
100 Thieves · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +22%Betclic · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
2. BanBetclic remove Overpass
3. Pick100 Thieves take Inferno
4. PickBetclic take Nuke
5. BanBetclic remove Dust2
6. Ban100 Thieves remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (60% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct16:12
100 Thieves 57%Betclic 43%
The model gave 57% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
100 Thieves 88%Betclic 12%
The model gave 88% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 66%
Series result100 Thieves 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2