European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Walczaki#149 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
G2 Ares#103 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeG2 Ares ban
59%50%
Walczaki · 23 mapsedge Walczaki +9%G2 Ares · 0 maps
AncientWalczaki pick
63%55%
Walczaki · 15 mapsedge Walczaki +8%G2 Ares · 7 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
50%54%
Walczaki · 12 mapsnearly even -4%G2 Ares · 9 maps
Miragepossible decider
75%56%
Walczaki · 8 mapsedge Walczaki +19%G2 Ares · 12 maps
InfernoG2 Ares pick
50%62%
Walczaki · 8 mapsedge G2 Ares +12%G2 Ares · 9 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
71%67%
Walczaki · 10 mapsnearly even +4%G2 Ares · 2 maps
OverpassWalczaki ban
33%43%
Walczaki · 2 mapsedge G2 Ares +10%G2 Ares · 10 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWalczaki remove Overpass
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. PickWalczaki take Ancient
4. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
5. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
6. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (75% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:6
Walczaki 58%G2 Ares 42%
The model gave 58% on Walczaki — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
Walczaki 36%G2 Ares 64%
The model gave 64% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by Walczaki.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 66%
Series resultWalczaki 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2