DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMARKandLARRY ban
55%43%
Ground Zero · 7 mapsedge Ground Zero +12%MARKandLARRY · 3 maps
NukeGround Zero pick
55%50%
Ground Zero · 7 mapsedge Ground Zero +5%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
InfernoMARKandLARRY pick
50%43%
Ground Zero · 4 mapsedge Ground Zero +7%MARKandLARRY · 3 maps
Dust2possible decider
38%50%
Ground Zero · 4 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +12%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
AnubisMARKandLARRY ban
43%40%
Ground Zero · 3 mapsnearly even +3%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
DefaultGround Zero ban
50%60%
Ground Zero · 0 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +10%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
OverpassGround Zero ban
50%60%
Ground Zero · 0 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +10%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGround Zero remove Overpass
2. BanMARKandLARRY remove Anubis
3. PickGround Zero take Nuke
4. PickMARKandLARRY take Inferno
5. BanMARKandLARRY remove Mirage
6. BanGround Zero remove Default
DeciderDust2 (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:13
Ground Zero 35%MARKandLARRY 65%
The model gave 65% on MARKandLARRY — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
Ground Zero 58%MARKandLARRY 42%
The model gave 58% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 70%
Series resultGround Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2