NSTLGA League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMarsborne pick
64%40%
Marsborne · 7 mapsedge Marsborne +24%Iowa Stormboar · 6 maps
AncientIowa Stormboar pick
60%57%
Marsborne · 6 mapsnearly even +3%Iowa Stormboar · 3 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
75%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +25%Iowa Stormboar · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
63%60%
Marsborne · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Iowa Stormboar · 1 map
OverpassMarsborne ban
56%50%
Marsborne · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +6%Iowa Stormboar · 0 maps
NukeMarsborne ban
50%63%
Marsborne · 0 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +13%Iowa Stormboar · 4 maps
Dust2Iowa Stormboar ban
40%50%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Iowa Stormboar · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
3. PickMarsborne take Mirage
4. PickIowa Stormboar take Ancient
5. BanIowa Stormboar remove Dust2
6. BanMarsborne remove Overpass
DeciderAnubis (63% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Marsborne 37%Iowa Stormboar 63%
The model gave 63% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
Marsborne 56%Iowa Stormboar 44%
The model gave 56% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 78%
Series resultMarsborne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2