LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:1
LP#107 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLP pick
50%61%
GBC · 0 mapsedge LP +11%LP · 14 maps
InfernoLP ban
50%47%
GBC · 0 mapsnearly even +3%LP · 13 maps
Nukepossible decider
40%50%
GBC · 1 mapedge LP +10%LP · 12 maps
Dust2GBC pick
40%38%
GBC · 1 mapnearly even +2%LP · 9 maps
MirageLP ban
40%25%
GBC · 1 mapedge GBC +15%LP · 8 maps
CacheGBC ban
40%73%
GBC · 1 mapedge LP +33%LP · 7 maps
DefaultGBC ban
40%60%
GBC · 1 mapedge LP +20%LP · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGBC remove Cache
2. BanLP remove Mirage
3. PickGBC take Dust2
4. PickLP take Ancient
5. BanLP remove Inferno
6. BanGBC remove Default
DeciderNuke (40% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
GBC 31%LP 69%
The model gave 69% on LP — the map was taken by LP.
Model check result
Model favoriteLP · 77%
Series resultLP 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1