LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
SAW#61 in the world · win 13:10series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 13:10
NT#92 in the world · loss 10:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoNT ban
73%60%
SAW · 7 mapsedge SAW +13%NT · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
45%50%
SAW · 7 mapsedge NT +5%NT · 0 maps
Dust2SAW ban
33%50%
SAW · 5 mapsedge NT +17%NT · 2 maps
CacheSAW ban
57%43%
SAW · 3 mapsedge SAW +14%NT · 3 maps
MirageNT ban
67%43%
SAW · 2 mapsedge SAW +24%NT · 3 maps
AnubisSAW ban
38%50%
SAW · 4 mapsedge NT +12%NT · 0 maps
NukeNT ban
57%40%
SAW · 3 mapsedge SAW +17%NT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSAW remove Dust2
2. BanNT remove Nuke
3. BanSAW remove Anubis
4. BanNT remove Inferno
5. BanSAW remove Cache
6. BanNT remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (45% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:10
SAW 38%NT 62%
The model gave 63% on NT — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 58%
Series resultSAW 13:10
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1