LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fluxo#56 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LP#107 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeFluxo pick
63%47%
Fluxo · 28 mapsedge Fluxo +16%LP · 11 maps
Infernopossible decider
56%47%
Fluxo · 14 mapsedge Fluxo +9%LP · 13 maps
MirageLP ban
70%33%
Fluxo · 19 mapsedge Fluxo +37%LP · 8 maps
Dust2Fluxo ban
53%38%
Fluxo · 15 mapsedge Fluxo +15%LP · 9 maps
CacheLP pick
50%75%
Fluxo · 12 mapsedge LP +25%LP · 8 maps
AncientFluxo ban
50%56%
Fluxo · 0 mapsedge LP +6%LP · 14 maps
AnubisLP ban
47%50%
Fluxo · 11 mapsnearly even -3%LP · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFluxo remove Ancient
2. BanLP remove Anubis
3. PickFluxo take Nuke
4. PickLP take Cache
5. BanLP remove Mirage
6. BanFluxo remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (56% / 47%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
Fluxo 23%LP 77%
The model gave 77% on LP — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Fluxo 84%LP 16%
The model gave 84% on Fluxo — the map was taken by Fluxo.
Model check result
Model favoriteFluxo · 53%
Series resultFluxo 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2