LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
RBLS#93 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SAW#61 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisRBLS ban
50%44%
RBLS · 4 mapsedge RBLS +6%SAW · 5 maps
Dust2SAW ban
50%44%
RBLS · 4 mapsedge RBLS +6%SAW · 5 maps
InfernoSAW pick
60%75%
RBLS · 1 mapedge SAW +15%SAW · 8 maps
AncientSAW ban
67%50%
RBLS · 2 mapsedge RBLS +17%SAW · 6 maps
CacheRBLS ban
57%63%
RBLS · 3 mapsedge SAW +6%SAW · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
67%63%
RBLS · 2 mapsnearly even +4%SAW · 4 maps
DefaultRBLS pick
50%50%
RBLS · 0 mapsnearly even +0%SAW · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRBLS remove Cache
2. BanSAW remove Ancient
3. PickRBLS take Default
4. PickSAW take Inferno
5. BanSAW remove Dust2
6. BanRBLS remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (67% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed1:13
RBLS 69%SAW 31%
The model gave 69% on RBLS — the map was taken by SAW.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
RBLS 31%SAW 69%
The model gave 69% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 57%
Series resultSAW 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2