LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · win 2:0series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RBLS#93 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
29%50%
INFINITE · 13 mapsedge RBLS +21%RBLS · 4 maps
MirageRBLS ban
53%50%
INFINITE · 15 mapsnearly even +3%RBLS · 0 maps
AncientINFINITE pick
42%57%
INFINITE · 8 mapsedge RBLS +15%RBLS · 3 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
40%50%
INFINITE · 6 mapsedge RBLS +10%RBLS · 2 maps
NukeRBLS pick
40%67%
INFINITE · 6 mapsedge RBLS +27%RBLS · 2 maps
CacheRBLS ban
50%57%
INFINITE · 4 mapsedge RBLS +7%RBLS · 3 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
40%50%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge RBLS +10%RBLS · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
2. BanRBLS remove Mirage
3. PickINFINITE take Ancient
4. PickRBLS take Nuke
5. BanRBLS remove Cache
6. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (29% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:8
INFINITE 23%RBLS 77%
The model gave 77% on RBLS — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
INFINITE 38%RBLS 62%
The model gave 62% on RBLS — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteRBLS · 56%
Series resultINFINITE 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2