NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
3DMAX#20 in the world · win 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HOTU#41 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cache3DMAX pick
57%62%
3DMAX · 10 mapsedge HOTU +5%HOTU · 17 maps
Dust2HOTU pick
50%68%
3DMAX · 6 mapsedge HOTU +18%HOTU · 18 maps
AncientHOTU ban
55%62%
3DMAX · 7 mapsedge HOTU +7%HOTU · 9 maps
Nuke3DMAX ban
36%69%
3DMAX · 7 mapsedge HOTU +33%HOTU · 9 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%71%
3DMAX · 2 mapsedge HOTU +21%HOTU · 10 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
43%50%
3DMAX · 10 mapsedge HOTU +7%HOTU · 0 maps
Mirage3DMAX ban
50%50%
3DMAX · 0 mapsnearly even +0%HOTU · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban3DMAX remove Mirage
2. BanHOTU remove Inferno
3. Pick3DMAX take Cache
4. PickHOTU take Dust2
5. BanHOTU remove Ancient
6. Ban3DMAX remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (50% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
3DMAX 34%HOTU 66%
The model gave 66% on HOTU — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Anubisprediction correct17:19
3DMAX 26%HOTU 74%
The model gave 74% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
3DMAX 43%HOTU 57%
The model gave 57% on HOTU — the map was taken by 3DMAX.
Model check result
Model favorite3DMAX · 56%
Series result3DMAX 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3