Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Nemesis ban
65%48%
Nemesis · 13 mapsedge Nemesis +17%Rune Eaters · 23 maps
AncientNemesis pick
55%50%
Nemesis · 18 mapsedge Nemesis +5%Rune Eaters · 14 maps
MirageRune Eaters pick
46%62%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Rune Eaters +16%Rune Eaters · 17 maps
InfernoRune Eaters ban
53%38%
Nemesis · 11 mapsedge Nemesis +15%Rune Eaters · 9 maps
CacheRune Eaters ban
64%50%
Nemesis · 7 mapsedge Nemesis +14%Rune Eaters · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
58%67%
Nemesis · 8 mapsedge Rune Eaters +9%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
DefaultNemesis ban
29%71%
Nemesis · 3 mapsedge Rune Eaters +42%Rune Eaters · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Default
2. BanRune Eaters remove Cache
3. PickNemesis take Ancient
4. PickRune Eaters take Mirage
5. BanRune Eaters remove Inferno
6. BanNemesis remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (58% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Nemesis 64%Rune Eaters 36%
The model gave 64% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
Nemesis 67%Rune Eaters 33%
The model gave 67% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 70%
Series resultNemesis 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2