Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Iberian Soul#57 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Phantom#87 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPhantom pick
53%52%
Iberian Soul · 11 mapsnearly even +1%Phantom · 17 maps
InfernoIberian Soul pick
60%62%
Iberian Soul · 6 mapsnearly even -2%Phantom · 9 maps
MiragePhantom ban
56%45%
Iberian Soul · 5 mapsedge Iberian Soul +11%Phantom · 7 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%50%
Iberian Soul · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom · 10 maps
AnubisIberian Soul ban
60%40%
Iberian Soul · 1 mapedge Iberian Soul +20%Phantom · 6 maps
CachePhantom ban
33%33%
Iberian Soul · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Phantom · 2 maps
Dust2Iberian Soul ban
50%55%
Iberian Soul · 0 mapsedge Phantom +5%Phantom · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIberian Soul remove Dust2
2. BanPhantom remove Mirage
3. PickIberian Soul take Inferno
4. PickPhantom take Ancient
5. BanPhantom remove Cache
6. BanIberian Soul remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
Iberian Soul 47%Phantom 53%
The model gave 53% on Phantom — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Iberian Soul 51%Phantom 49%
The model gave 51% on Iberian Soul — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Model check result
Model favoriteIberian Soul · 57%
Series resultIberian Soul 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2