Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEternal Fire pick
65%59%
Nuclear TigeRES · 19 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +6%Eternal Fire · 13 maps
Dust2Eternal Fire ban
38%67%
Nuclear TigeRES · 17 mapsedge Eternal Fire +29%Eternal Fire · 11 maps
InfernoNuclear TigeRES pick
76%57%
Nuclear TigeRES · 13 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +19%Eternal Fire · 10 maps
Anubispossible decider
44%64%
Nuclear TigeRES · 14 mapsedge Eternal Fire +20%Eternal Fire · 7 maps
CacheNuclear TigeRES ban
56%56%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Eternal Fire · 14 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
22%53%
Nuclear TigeRES · 5 mapsedge Eternal Fire +31%Eternal Fire · 13 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
46%50%
Nuclear TigeRES · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Eternal Fire · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
2. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
3. PickNuclear TigeRES take Inferno
4. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
5. BanEternal Fire remove Dust2
6. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (44% / 64%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:7
Nuclear TigeRES 34%Eternal Fire 66%
The model gave 66% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
Nuclear TigeRES 21%Eternal Fire 79%
The model gave 79% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
Nuclear TigeRES 57%Eternal Fire 43%
The model gave 57% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 54%
Series resultEternal Fire 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3