Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:1series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sashi#91 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSashi ban
55%45%
Nemesis · 18 mapsedge Nemesis +10%Sashi · 7 maps
Dust2Nemesis pick
67%40%
Nemesis · 14 mapsedge Nemesis +27%Sashi · 11 maps
Nukepossible decider
58%58%
Nemesis · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Sashi · 15 maps
CacheSashi pick
64%61%
Nemesis · 7 mapsnearly even +3%Sashi · 14 maps
InfernoNemesis ban
56%64%
Nemesis · 12 mapsedge Sashi +8%Sashi · 7 maps
MirageSashi ban
46%40%
Nemesis · 9 mapsedge Nemesis +6%Sashi · 1 map
AnubisNemesis ban
50%67%
Nemesis · 0 mapsedge Sashi +17%Sashi · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNemesis remove Anubis
2. BanSashi remove Mirage
3. PickNemesis take Dust2
4. PickSashi take Cache
5. BanSashi remove Ancient
6. BanNemesis remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (58% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
Nemesis 39%Sashi 61%
The model gave 61% on Sashi — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Nemesis 62%Sashi 38%
The model gave 62% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Sashi.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Nemesis 50%Sashi 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemesis · 56%
Series resultNemesis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3