Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageK27 pick
67%76%
K27 · 17 mapsedge ex-RUBY +9%ex-RUBY · 13 maps
Cacheex-RUBY pick
46%46%
K27 · 20 mapsnearly even +0%ex-RUBY · 9 maps
AncientK27 ban
53%50%
K27 · 15 mapsnearly even +3%ex-RUBY · 10 maps
Nukeex-RUBY ban
45%45%
K27 · 18 mapsnearly even +0%ex-RUBY · 7 maps
Dust2K27 ban
42%60%
K27 · 8 mapsedge ex-RUBY +18%ex-RUBY · 11 maps
Anubisex-RUBY ban
67%60%
K27 · 8 mapsedge K27 +7%ex-RUBY · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%38%
K27 · 1 mapedge K27 +22%ex-RUBY · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Dust2
2. Banex-RUBY remove Anubis
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. Pickex-RUBY take Cache
5. Banex-RUBY remove Nuke
6. BanK27 remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
K27 35%ex-RUBY 65%
The model gave 65% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by K27.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
K27 53%ex-RUBY 47%
The model gave 53% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 62%
Series resultK27 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2