Stake Ranked Episode 5 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternal Fire#46 in the world · win 2:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:0
K27#44 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Cachepossible decider
56%48%
Eternal Fire · 14 mapsedge Eternal Fire +8%K27 · 21 map
MirageK27 pick
53%68%
Eternal Fire · 13 mapsedge K27 +15%K27 · 18 maps
AncientEternal Fire pick
61%50%
Eternal Fire · 14 mapsedge Eternal Fire +11%K27 · 16 maps
Dust2K27 ban
69%42%
Eternal Fire · 12 mapsedge Eternal Fire +27%K27 · 8 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
50%43%
Eternal Fire · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%K27 · 19 maps
AnubisEternal Fire ban
58%67%
Eternal Fire · 8 mapsedge K27 +9%K27 · 8 maps
InfernoK27 ban
57%50%
Eternal Fire · 10 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%K27 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
2. BanK27 remove Inferno
3. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
4. PickK27 take Mirage
5. BanK27 remove Dust2
6. BanEternal Fire remove Anubis
DeciderCache (56% / 48%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Eternal Fire 78%K27 22%
The model gave 78% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
Eternal Fire 32%K27 68%
The model gave 68% on K27 — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteEternal Fire · 54%
Series resultEternal Fire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2