NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
illwillloss 0:2series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2illwill pick
50%47%
illwill · 6 mapsnearly even +3%Nuclear TigeRES · 11 maps
Ancientillwill ban
43%54%
illwill · 3 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +11%Nuclear TigeRES · 9 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
40%73%
illwill · 1 mapedge Nuclear TigeRES +33%Nuclear TigeRES · 11 maps
Miragepossible decider
45%75%
illwill · 7 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +30%Nuclear TigeRES · 4 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
33%55%
illwill · 2 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +22%Nuclear TigeRES · 7 maps
OverpassNuclear TigeRES ban
71%50%
illwill · 3 mapsedge illwill +21%Nuclear TigeRES · 0 maps
Infernoillwill ban
50%67%
illwill · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +17%Nuclear TigeRES · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banillwill remove Inferno
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Overpass
3. Pickillwill take Dust2
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
6. Banillwill remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (45% / 75%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
illwill 18%Nuclear TigeRES 82%
The model gave 82% on Nuclear TigeRES — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
illwill 56%Nuclear TigeRES 44%
The model gave 56% on illwill — the map was taken by Nuclear TigeRES.
Model check result
Model favoriteNuclear TigeRES · 84%
Series resultNuclear TigeRES 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2