Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
eternal premium#208 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Phantom Academy#173 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MiragePhantom Academy pick
43%64%
eternal premium · 10 mapsedge Phantom Academy +21%Phantom Academy · 7 maps
Ancienteternal premium pick
67%50%
eternal premium · 8 mapsedge eternal premium +17%Phantom Academy · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%67%
eternal premium · 8 mapsedge Phantom Academy +17%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
Anubiseternal premium ban
40%60%
eternal premium · 6 mapsedge Phantom Academy +20%Phantom Academy · 1 map
DefaultPhantom Academy ban
43%33%
eternal premium · 3 mapsedge eternal premium +10%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
Dust2eternal premium ban
29%50%
eternal premium · 3 mapsedge Phantom Academy +21%Phantom Academy · 2 maps
InfernoPhantom Academy ban
50%40%
eternal premium · 4 mapsedge eternal premium +10%Phantom Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Baneternal premium remove Dust2
2. BanPhantom Academy remove Inferno
3. Picketernal premium take Ancient
4. PickPhantom Academy take Mirage
5. BanPhantom Academy remove Default
6. Baneternal premium remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
eternal premium 33%Phantom Academy 67%
The model gave 67% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
eternal premium 31%Phantom Academy 69%
The model gave 69% on Phantom Academy — the map was taken by Phantom Academy.
Model check result
Model favoritePhantom Academy · 52%
Series resultPhantom Academy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2