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European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageINFINITE pick
67%63%
INFINITE · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
AncientVirtus.pro pick
57%63%
INFINITE · 3 mapsedge Virtus.pro +6%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%56%
INFINITE · 2 mapsedge Virtus.pro +6%Virtus.pro · 5 maps
OverpassINFINITE ban
50%60%
INFINITE · 0 mapsedge Virtus.pro +10%Virtus.pro · 6 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
60%50%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +10%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
NukeVirtus.pro ban
50%67%
INFINITE · 2 mapsedge Virtus.pro +17%Virtus.pro · 2 maps
InfernoVirtus.pro ban
50%50%
INFINITE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Virtus.pro · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Overpass
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Inferno
3. PickINFINITE take Mirage
4. PickVirtus.pro take Ancient
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Nuke
6. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:4
INFINITE 58%Virtus.pro 42%
The model gave 58% on INFINITE — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Overpassprediction correct8:13
INFINITE 37%Virtus.pro 63%
The model gave 63% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
INFINITE 44%Virtus.pro 56%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 56%
Series resultINFINITE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3