NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
1win#33 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
63%75%
1win · 4 mapsedge TDK +12%TDK · 12 maps
OverpassTDK pick
38%79%
1win · 4 mapsedge TDK +41%TDK · 10 maps
MirageTDK ban
40%45%
1win · 6 mapsedge TDK +5%TDK · 7 maps
Ancient1win ban
50%62%
1win · 2 mapsedge TDK +12%TDK · 9 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%43%
1win · 2 mapsedge 1win +24%TDK · 3 maps
InfernoTDK ban
60%38%
1win · 1 mapedge 1win +22%TDK · 4 maps
Default1win ban
50%57%
1win · 0 mapsedge TDK +7%TDK · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Ban1win remove Ancient
2. BanTDK remove Inferno
3. Pick1win take Dust2
4. PickTDK take Overpass
5. BanTDK remove Mirage
6. Ban1win remove Default
DeciderAnubis (67% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
1win 70%TDK 30%
The model gave 70% on 1win — the map was taken by TDK.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
1win 47%TDK 53%
The model gave 53% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 52%
Series resultTDK 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2