Exort Fiesta Series 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fire Flux#103 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Fire Flux pick
50%50%
Raccoons · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Fire Flux · 10 maps
AnubisRaccoons ban
50%64%
Raccoons · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +14%Fire Flux · 7 maps
MirageRaccoons pick
67%44%
Raccoons · 2 mapsedge Raccoons +23%Fire Flux · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%44%
Raccoons · 0 mapsedge Raccoons +6%Fire Flux · 5 maps
NukeFire Flux ban
60%63%
Raccoons · 1 mapnearly even -3%Fire Flux · 4 maps
AncientFire Flux ban
60%57%
Raccoons · 1 mapnearly even +3%Fire Flux · 3 maps
InfernoRaccoons ban
50%63%
Raccoons · 0 mapsedge Fire Flux +13%Fire Flux · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanRaccoons remove Inferno
2. BanFire Flux remove Nuke
3. PickRaccoons take Mirage
4. PickFire Flux take Dust2
5. BanFire Flux remove Ancient
6. BanRaccoons remove Anubis
DeciderCache (50% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
Raccoons 35%Fire Flux 65%
The model gave 65% on Fire Flux — the map was taken by Raccoons.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Raccoons 74%Fire Flux 26%
The model gave 74% on Raccoons — the map was taken by Raccoons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFire Flux · 60%
Series resultRaccoons 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2