NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Walczaki#149 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeWalczaki pick
38%59%
K27 · 4 mapsedge Walczaki +21%Walczaki · 23 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%63%
K27 · 4 mapsedge Walczaki +13%Walczaki · 15 maps
Dust2Walczaki ban
40%53%
K27 · 1 mapedge Walczaki +13%Walczaki · 11 maps
MirageK27 pick
43%75%
K27 · 3 mapsedge Walczaki +32%Walczaki · 8 maps
AnubisK27 ban
40%77%
K27 · 1 mapedge Walczaki +37%Walczaki · 9 maps
InfernoK27 ban
50%50%
K27 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Walczaki · 8 maps
OverpassWalczaki ban
50%33%
K27 · 4 mapsedge K27 +17%Walczaki · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. BanWalczaki remove Overpass
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickWalczaki take Nuke
5. BanWalczaki remove Dust2
6. BanK27 remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (50% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
K27 40%Walczaki 60%
The model gave 60% on Walczaki — the map was taken by K27.
Anubisprediction missed13:6
K27 15%Walczaki 85%
The model gave 85% on Walczaki — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteWalczaki · 55%
Series resultK27 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2