NSTLGA League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Marsborne#82 in the world · win 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Festina Lente#193 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFestina Lente ban
75%50%
Marsborne · 8 mapsedge Marsborne +25%Festina Lente · 0 maps
MirageMarsborne pick
64%50%
Marsborne · 7 mapsedge Marsborne +14%Festina Lente · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%50%
Marsborne · 5 mapsedge Marsborne +6%Festina Lente · 0 maps
AnubisMarsborne ban
57%60%
Marsborne · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Festina Lente · 1 map
OverpassFestina Lente ban
63%50%
Marsborne · 4 mapsedge Marsborne +13%Festina Lente · 0 maps
Dust2Festina Lente pick
40%60%
Marsborne · 1 mapedge Festina Lente +20%Festina Lente · 1 map
NukeMarsborne ban
50%67%
Marsborne · 0 mapsedge Festina Lente +17%Festina Lente · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMarsborne remove Nuke
2. BanFestina Lente remove Inferno
3. PickMarsborne take Mirage
4. PickFestina Lente take Dust2
5. BanFestina Lente remove Overpass
6. BanMarsborne remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed10:13
Marsborne 60%Festina Lente 40%
The model gave 60% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Festina Lente.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
Marsborne 50%Festina Lente 50%
The model gave 50% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Marsborne 56%Festina Lente 44%
The model gave 56% on Marsborne — the map was taken by Marsborne.
Model check result
Model favoriteMarsborne · 78%
Series resultMarsborne 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3