POWER Ligaen Season 32 · BO3
result vs prediction
MASQloss 1:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
STATE#137 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMASQ ban
60%50%
MASQ · 1 mapedge MASQ +10%STATE · 6 maps
NukeMASQ ban
50%78%
MASQ · 2 mapsedge STATE +28%STATE · 5 maps
MirageSTATE pick
40%63%
MASQ · 1 mapedge STATE +23%STATE · 4 maps
OverpassSTATE ban
40%38%
MASQ · 1 mapnearly even +2%STATE · 4 maps
InfernoMASQ pick
60%57%
MASQ · 1 mapnearly even +3%STATE · 3 maps
AnubisSTATE ban
50%50%
MASQ · 0 mapsnearly even +0%STATE · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMASQ remove Nuke
2. BanSTATE remove Anubis
3. PickMASQ take Inferno
4. PickSTATE take Mirage
5. BanSTATE remove Overpass
6. BanMASQ remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct4:13
MASQ 31%STATE 69%
The model gave 69% on STATE — the map was taken by STATE.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
MASQ 20%STATE 80%
The model gave 80% on STATE — the map was taken by MASQ.
Infernoprediction missed8:13
MASQ 53%STATE 47%
The model gave 53% on MASQ — the map was taken by STATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteSTATE · 73%
Series resultSTATE 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3