IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
PARIVISION#11 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Legacy#7 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientLegacy ban
40%33%
PARIVISION · 6 mapsedge PARIVISION +7%Legacy · 8 maps
Dust2PARIVISION pick
67%67%
PARIVISION · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Legacy · 8 maps
MirageLegacy pick
50%82%
PARIVISION · 4 mapsedge Legacy +32%Legacy · 7 maps
InfernoPARIVISION ban
29%64%
PARIVISION · 3 mapsedge Legacy +35%Legacy · 7 maps
NukePARIVISION ban
50%45%
PARIVISION · 0 mapsedge PARIVISION +5%Legacy · 7 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
40%60%
PARIVISION · 1 mapedge Legacy +20%Legacy · 1 map
Overpasspossible decider
40%60%
PARIVISION · 1 mapedge Legacy +20%Legacy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPARIVISION remove Nuke
2. BanLegacy remove Anubis
3. PickPARIVISION take Dust2
4. PickLegacy take Mirage
5. BanLegacy remove Ancient
6. BanPARIVISION remove Inferno
DeciderOverpass (40% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct12:16
PARIVISION 17%Legacy 83%
The model gave 83% on Legacy — the map was taken by Legacy.
Dust2prediction missed13:16
PARIVISION 53%Legacy 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the map was taken by Legacy.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 55%
Series resultLegacy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2