IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitality#2 in the world · win 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZ#3 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMOUZ pick
67%62%
Vitality · 5 mapsedge Vitality +5%MOUZ · 9 maps
Dust2Vitality pick
67%56%
Vitality · 8 mapsedge Vitality +11%MOUZ · 5 maps
MirageVitality ban
70%70%
Vitality · 6 mapsnearly even +0%MOUZ · 6 maps
Overpasspossible decider
63%67%
Vitality · 4 mapsnearly even -4%MOUZ · 5 maps
InfernoMOUZ ban
50%60%
Vitality · 2 mapsedge MOUZ +10%MOUZ · 6 maps
AncientVitality ban
50%56%
Vitality · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +6%MOUZ · 5 maps
AnubisMOUZ ban
38%50%
Vitality · 4 mapsedge MOUZ +12%MOUZ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitality remove Ancient
2. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
3. PickVitality take Dust2
4. PickMOUZ take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ remove Inferno
6. BanVitality remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (63% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
Vitality 47%MOUZ 53%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the map was taken by Vitality.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
Vitality 64%MOUZ 36%
The model gave 64% on Vitality — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
Vitality 40%MOUZ 60%
The model gave 60% on MOUZ — the map was taken by Vitality.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 78%
Series resultVitality 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3