ROG JOURNEY Summer 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS pick
42%67%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +25%BASEMENT BOYS · 8 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%56%
fnatic · 10 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
MirageBASEMENT BOYS ban
64%67%
fnatic · 10 mapsnearly even -3%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
Infernofnatic pick
75%44%
fnatic · 8 mapsedge fnatic +31%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
Ancientfnatic ban
56%64%
fnatic · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +8%BASEMENT BOYS · 7 maps
Nukefnatic ban
50%55%
fnatic · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +5%BASEMENT BOYS · 7 maps
OverpassBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%40%
fnatic · 1 mapnearly even +0%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banfnatic remove Nuke
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Overpass
3. Pickfnatic take Inferno
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Dust2
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Mirage
6. Banfnatic remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (50% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:5
fnatic 42%BASEMENT BOYS 58%
The model gave 58% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by fnatic.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
fnatic 81%BASEMENT BOYS 19%
The model gave 81% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 53%
Series resultfnatic 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2