IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:1series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Monte#23 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Falcons pick
69%45%
Falcons · 12 mapsedge Falcons +24%Monte · 7 maps
AncientMonte ban
62%56%
Falcons · 9 mapsedge Falcons +6%Monte · 5 maps
MirageMonte pick
40%56%
Falcons · 6 mapsedge Monte +16%Monte · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
56%40%
Falcons · 5 mapsedge Falcons +16%Monte · 6 maps
InfernoMonte ban
43%60%
Falcons · 3 mapsedge Monte +17%Monte · 1 map
AnubisFalcons ban
50%50%
Falcons · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Monte · 2 maps
OverpassFalcons ban
50%40%
Falcons · 0 mapsedge Falcons +10%Monte · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFalcons remove Overpass
2. BanMonte remove Inferno
3. PickFalcons take Dust2
4. PickMonte take Mirage
5. BanMonte remove Ancient
6. BanFalcons remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (56% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:9
Falcons 31%Monte 69%
The model gave 69% on Monte — the map was taken by Falcons.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Falcons 75%Monte 25%
The model gave 75% on Falcons — the map was taken by Monte.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Falcons 35%Monte 65%
The model gave 65% on Monte — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 86%
Series resultFalcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3