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ROG JOURNEY Summer 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Entropy#159 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEntropy ban
70%44%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +26%Entropy · 5 maps
AnubisEntropy pick
50%44%
BASEMENT BOYS · 4 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%Entropy · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
63%44%
BASEMENT BOYS · 4 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +19%Entropy · 5 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS pick
67%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 8 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +17%Entropy · 0 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
44%33%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +11%Entropy · 2 maps
NukeEntropy ban
55%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 7 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +5%Entropy · 0 maps
OverpassBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%38%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapnearly even +2%Entropy · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Overpass
2. BanEntropy remove Nuke
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Dust2
4. PickEntropy take Anubis
5. BanEntropy remove Ancient
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (63% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct16:12
BASEMENT BOYS 65%Entropy 35%
The model gave 65% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Ancientprediction missed6:13
BASEMENT BOYS 77%Entropy 23%
The model gave 77% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by Entropy.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
BASEMENT BOYS 56%Entropy 44%
The model gave 56% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 75%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3