IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · win 2:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The MongolZ#16 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNatus Vincere pick
73%38%
Natus Vincere · 7 mapsedge Natus Vincere +35%The MongolZ · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
33%50%
Natus Vincere · 5 mapsedge The MongolZ +17%The MongolZ · 4 maps
MirageThe MongolZ ban
71%40%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Natus Vincere +31%The MongolZ · 6 maps
InfernoThe MongolZ pick
63%71%
Natus Vincere · 4 mapsedge The MongolZ +8%The MongolZ · 3 maps
AnubisThe MongolZ ban
56%50%
Natus Vincere · 5 mapsedge Natus Vincere +6%The MongolZ · 0 maps
NukeNatus Vincere ban
50%60%
Natus Vincere · 2 mapsedge The MongolZ +10%The MongolZ · 1 map
OverpassNatus Vincere ban
50%50%
Natus Vincere · 0 mapsnearly even +0%The MongolZ · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNatus Vincere remove Overpass
2. BanThe MongolZ remove Anubis
3. PickNatus Vincere take Ancient
4. PickThe MongolZ take Inferno
5. BanThe MongolZ remove Mirage
6. BanNatus Vincere remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
Natus Vincere 37%The MongolZ 63%
The model gave 63% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Ancientprediction correct16:13
Natus Vincere 83%The MongolZ 17%
The model gave 83% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
Natus Vincere 79%The MongolZ 21%
The model gave 79% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 76%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3