DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rooster#196 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeGround Zero pick
58%43%
Ground Zero · 8 mapsedge Ground Zero +15%Rooster · 3 maps
MirageRooster ban
55%67%
Ground Zero · 7 mapsedge Rooster +12%Rooster · 2 maps
Dust2possible decider
44%57%
Ground Zero · 5 mapsedge Rooster +13%Rooster · 3 maps
InfernoRooster pick
50%71%
Ground Zero · 4 mapsedge Rooster +21%Rooster · 3 maps
AnubisGround Zero ban
43%60%
Ground Zero · 3 mapsedge Rooster +17%Rooster · 1 map
OverpassGround Zero ban
50%29%
Ground Zero · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +21%Rooster · 3 maps
DefaultRooster ban
50%33%
Ground Zero · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +17%Rooster · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGround Zero remove Overpass
2. BanRooster remove Mirage
3. PickGround Zero take Nuke
4. PickRooster take Inferno
5. BanRooster remove Default
6. BanGround Zero remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (44% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
Ground Zero 40%Rooster 60%
The model gave 60% on Rooster — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Dust2prediction missed16:13
Ground Zero 35%Rooster 65%
The model gave 65% on Rooster — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 50%
Series resultGround Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2