Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vaelwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientPassion Chicha ban
50%40%
Passion Chicha · 0 mapsedge Passion Chicha +10%Vael · 1 map
CacheVael ban
40%50%
Passion Chicha · 1 mapedge Vael +10%Vael · 0 maps
Dust2Passion Chicha pick
50%40%
Passion Chicha · 0 mapsedge Passion Chicha +10%Vael · 1 map
NukeVael pick
40%50%
Passion Chicha · 1 mapedge Vael +10%Vael · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanPassion Chicha remove Ancient
2. BanVael remove Cache
3. PickPassion Chicha take Dust2
4. PickVael take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
Passion Chicha 53%Vael 47%
The model gave 53% on Passion Chicha — the map was taken by Vael.
Mirageprediction correct8:13
Passion Chicha 47%Vael 53%
The model gave 53% on Vael — the map was taken by Vael.
Model check result
Model favoritePassion Chicha · 50%
Series resultVael 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2