Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
K27#44 in the world · win 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SINNERS#45 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageK27 pick
61%55%
K27 · 14 mapsedge K27 +6%SINNERS · 7 maps
AncientSINNERS ban
60%30%
K27 · 11 mapsedge K27 +30%SINNERS · 6 maps
NukeK27 ban
24%33%
K27 · 13 mapsedge SINNERS +9%SINNERS · 2 maps
Dust2SINNERS pick
60%55%
K27 · 6 mapsedge K27 +5%SINNERS · 7 maps
Overpasspossible decider
60%60%
K27 · 6 mapsnearly even +0%SINNERS · 1 map
InfernoK27 ban
50%40%
K27 · 0 mapsedge K27 +10%SINNERS · 6 maps
AnubisSINNERS ban
44%50%
K27 · 5 mapsedge SINNERS +6%SINNERS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanK27 remove Inferno
2. BanSINNERS remove Anubis
3. PickK27 take Mirage
4. PickSINNERS take Dust2
5. BanSINNERS remove Ancient
6. BanK27 remove Nuke
DeciderOverpass (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:0
K27 53%SINNERS 47%
The model gave 53% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
K27 53%SINNERS 47%
The model gave 53% on K27 — the map was taken by K27.
Model check result
Model favoriteK27 · 52%
Series resultK27 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2