Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisDark Tigre ban
40%50%
Dark Tigre · 1 mapedge MANGANESE +10%MANGANESE · 0 maps
Dust2MANGANESE pick
50%40%
Dark Tigre · 0 mapsedge Dark Tigre +10%MANGANESE · 1 map
InfernoDark Tigre pick
50%40%
Dark Tigre · 0 mapsedge Dark Tigre +10%MANGANESE · 1 map
MirageMANGANESE ban
40%50%
Dark Tigre · 1 mapedge MANGANESE +10%MANGANESE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDark Tigre remove Anubis
2. BanMANGANESE remove Mirage
3. PickDark Tigre take Inferno
4. PickMANGANESE take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
Dark Tigre 57%MANGANESE 43%
The model gave 57% on Dark Tigre — the map was taken by Dark Tigre.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Dark Tigre 43%MANGANESE 57%
The model gave 57% on MANGANESE — the map was taken by Dark Tigre.
Model check result
Model favoriteDark Tigre · 50%
Series resultDark Tigre 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2