Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Vandulkenloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Spirit HU#138 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoSpirit HU pick
40%50%
Vandulken · 1 mapedge Spirit HU +10%Spirit HU · 2 maps
CacheVandulken pick
40%40%
Vandulken · 1 mapnearly even +0%Spirit HU · 1 map
Dust2Spirit HU ban
50%33%
Vandulken · 0 mapsedge Vandulken +17%Spirit HU · 2 maps
MirageVandulken ban
50%33%
Vandulken · 0 mapsedge Vandulken +17%Spirit HU · 2 maps
OverpassSpirit HU ban
50%40%
Vandulken · 0 mapsedge Vandulken +10%Spirit HU · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVandulken remove Mirage
2. BanSpirit HU remove Dust2
3. PickVandulken take Cache
4. PickSpirit HU take Inferno
5. BanSpirit HU remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed0:13
Vandulken 69%Spirit HU 31%
The model gave 69% on Vandulken — the map was taken by Spirit HU.
Anubisprediction correct3:13
Vandulken 47%Spirit HU 53%
The model gave 53% on Spirit HU — the map was taken by Spirit HU.
Model check result
Model favoriteSpirit HU · 53%
Series resultSpirit HU 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2