ESEA Advanced Season 57 North America · BO3
result vs prediction
Wanted Goons#225 in the world · win 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
F5#208 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientWanted Goons pick
57%50%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%F5 · 6 maps
InfernoWanted Goons ban
33%44%
Wanted Goons · 2 mapsedge F5 +11%F5 · 5 maps
NukeF5 ban
38%43%
Wanted Goons · 4 mapsedge F5 +5%F5 · 3 maps
MirageF5 pick
29%67%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge F5 +38%F5 · 2 maps
Overpasspossible decider
50%43%
Wanted Goons · 2 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%F5 · 3 maps
AnubisWanted Goons ban
50%43%
Wanted Goons · 0 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%F5 · 3 maps
Dust2F5 ban
57%50%
Wanted Goons · 3 mapsedge Wanted Goons +7%F5 · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanWanted Goons remove Inferno
2. BanF5 remove Dust2
3. PickWanted Goons take Ancient
4. PickF5 take Mirage
5. BanF5 remove Nuke
6. BanWanted Goons remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Wanted Goons 54%F5 46%
The model gave 54% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Nukeprediction correct4:13
Wanted Goons 47%F5 53%
The model gave 53% on F5 — the map was taken by F5.
Overpassprediction correct13:10
Wanted Goons 57%F5 43%
The model gave 57% on Wanted Goons — the map was taken by Wanted Goons.
Model check result
Model favoriteF5 · 56%
Series resultWanted Goons 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3