IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vitality#2 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9z#17 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vitality pick
73%55%
Vitality · 7 mapsedge Vitality +18%9z · 7 maps
Nukepossible decider
67%60%
Vitality · 5 mapsedge Vitality +7%9z · 6 maps
Mirage9z ban
78%33%
Vitality · 5 mapsedge Vitality +45%9z · 5 maps
Overpass9z pick
63%70%
Vitality · 4 mapsedge 9z +7%9z · 6 maps
InfernoVitality ban
40%60%
Vitality · 1 mapedge 9z +20%9z · 6 maps
AncientVitality ban
50%56%
Vitality · 0 mapsedge 9z +6%9z · 5 maps
Anubis9z ban
38%40%
Vitality · 4 mapsnearly even -2%9z · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanVitality remove Ancient
2. Ban9z remove Anubis
3. PickVitality take Dust2
4. Pick9z take Overpass
5. Ban9z remove Mirage
6. BanVitality remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
Vitality 28%9z 72%
The model gave 72% on 9z — the map was taken by Vitality.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Vitality 89%9z 11%
The model gave 89% on Vitality — the map was taken by 9z.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
Vitality 69%9z 31%
The model gave 69% on Vitality — the map was taken by 9z.
Model check result
Model favoriteVitality · 90%
Series result9z 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3