Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nexus#159 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientJam pick
40%75%
Nexus · 1 mapedge Jam +35%Jam · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%67%
Nexus · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Jam · 2 maps
InfernoJam ban
50%50%
Nexus · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Jam · 0 maps
MirageJam ban
50%50%
Nexus · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Jam · 2 maps
OverpassNexus pick
63%50%
Nexus · 4 mapsedge Nexus +13%Jam · 0 maps
Dust2Nexus ban
50%60%
Nexus · 2 mapsedge Jam +10%Jam · 1 map
NukeNexus ban
50%67%
Nexus · 0 mapsedge Jam +17%Jam · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNexus remove Nuke
2. BanJam remove Inferno
3. PickNexus take Overpass
4. PickJam take Ancient
5. BanJam remove Mirage
6. BanNexus remove Dust2
DeciderAnubis (67% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
Nexus 31%Jam 69%
The model gave 69% on Jam — the map was taken by Jam.
Anubisprediction missed8:13
Nexus 53%Jam 47%
The model gave 53% on Nexus — the map was taken by Jam.
Model check result
Model favoriteNexus · 75%
Series resultJam 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2