POWER Ligaen Season 32 · BO1
result vs prediction
XI#239 in the world · loss 8:13series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 8:13
MASQwin 13:8The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMASQ ban
57%50%
XI · 3 mapsedge XI +7%MASQ · 0 maps
DefaultMASQ ban
67%50%
XI · 2 mapsedge XI +17%MASQ · 0 maps
Dust2XI ban
50%50%
XI · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MASQ · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%50%
XI · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MASQ · 0 maps
InfernoXI ban
40%50%
XI · 1 mapedge MASQ +10%MASQ · 0 maps
OverpassXI ban
40%50%
XI · 1 mapedge MASQ +10%MASQ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanXI remove Dust2
2. BanMASQ remove Default
3. BanXI remove Inferno
4. BanMASQ remove Ancient
5. BanXI remove Overpass
DeciderNuke (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
XI 50%MASQ 50%
The model gave 50% on XI — the map was taken by MASQ.
Model check result
Model favoriteXI · 59%
Series resultMASQ 8:13
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1