European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
brazylijski luz#146 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2brazylijski luz ban
50%40%
brazylijski luz · 8 mapsedge brazylijski luz +10%HYPERSPIRIT · 11 maps
Ancientbrazylijski luz pick
42%67%
brazylijski luz · 15 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +25%HYPERSPIRIT · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
46%42%
brazylijski luz · 9 mapsnearly even +4%HYPERSPIRIT · 8 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
58%29%
brazylijski luz · 8 mapsedge brazylijski luz +29%HYPERSPIRIT · 3 maps
AnubisHYPERSPIRIT ban
57%36%
brazylijski luz · 3 mapsedge brazylijski luz +21%HYPERSPIRIT · 7 maps
DefaultHYPERSPIRIT pick
57%63%
brazylijski luz · 3 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +6%HYPERSPIRIT · 4 maps
Overpassbrazylijski luz ban
50%33%
brazylijski luz · 2 mapsedge brazylijski luz +17%HYPERSPIRIT · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banbrazylijski luz remove Overpass
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
3. Pickbrazylijski luz take Ancient
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Default
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Anubis
6. Banbrazylijski luz remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (46% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
brazylijski luz 57%HYPERSPIRIT 43%
The model gave 57% on brazylijski luz — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Mirageprediction correct13:3
brazylijski luz 58%HYPERSPIRIT 42%
The model gave 58% on brazylijski luz — the map was taken by brazylijski luz.
Ancientprediction correct14:16
brazylijski luz 27%HYPERSPIRIT 73%
The model gave 73% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Model check result
Model favoritebrazylijski luz · 61%
Series resultHYPERSPIRIT 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3