IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Legacy#6 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNatus Vincere pick
70%36%
Natus Vincere · 6 mapsedge Natus Vincere +34%Legacy · 7 maps
Dust2Natus Vincere ban
33%67%
Natus Vincere · 5 mapsedge Legacy +34%Legacy · 8 maps
MirageLegacy pick
71%82%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Legacy +11%Legacy · 7 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%70%
Natus Vincere · 3 mapsedge Legacy +13%Legacy · 6 maps
NukeLegacy ban
50%45%
Natus Vincere · 2 mapsedge Natus Vincere +5%Legacy · 7 maps
AnubisLegacy ban
56%60%
Natus Vincere · 5 mapsnearly even -4%Legacy · 1 map
OverpassNatus Vincere ban
50%60%
Natus Vincere · 0 mapsedge Legacy +10%Legacy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanNatus Vincere remove Overpass
2. BanLegacy remove Anubis
3. PickNatus Vincere take Ancient
4. PickLegacy take Mirage
5. BanLegacy remove Nuke
6. BanNatus Vincere remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (57% / 70%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:4
Natus Vincere 34%Legacy 66%
The model gave 66% on Legacy — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Natus Vincere 82%Legacy 18%
The model gave 82% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 66%
Series resultNatus Vincere 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2