IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MOUZ#3 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeMOUZ pick
44%67%
FURIA · 5 mapsedge MOUZ +23%MOUZ · 8 maps
MirageFURIA ban
60%70%
FURIA · 6 mapsedge MOUZ +10%MOUZ · 6 maps
InfernoMOUZ ban
75%56%
FURIA · 4 mapsedge FURIA +19%MOUZ · 5 maps
Dust2MOUZ ban
29%56%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge MOUZ +27%MOUZ · 5 maps
OverpassFURIA pick
57%75%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge MOUZ +18%MOUZ · 4 maps
AncientFURIA ban
50%56%
FURIA · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +6%MOUZ · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Ancient
2. BanMOUZ remove Inferno
3. PickFURIA take Overpass
4. PickMOUZ take Nuke
5. BanMOUZ remove Dust2
6. BanFURIA remove Mirage
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
FURIA 26%MOUZ 74%
The model gave 74% on MOUZ — the map was taken by FURIA.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
FURIA 73%MOUZ 27%
The model gave 73% on FURIA — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Overpassprediction missed13:7
FURIA 31%MOUZ 69%
The model gave 69% on MOUZ — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 57%
Series resultFURIA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3