DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
DXA#220 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageDXA ban
38%50%
Ding Cuts · 4 mapsedge DXA +12%DXA · 0 maps
AncientDing Cuts pick
60%50%
Ding Cuts · 1 mapedge Ding Cuts +10%DXA · 2 maps
InfernoDXA pick
50%50%
Ding Cuts · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DXA · 0 maps
NukeDing Cuts ban
33%50%
Ding Cuts · 2 mapsedge DXA +17%DXA · 0 maps
OverpassDXA ban
60%40%
Ding Cuts · 1 mapedge Ding Cuts +20%DXA · 1 map
Dust2Ding Cuts ban
50%60%
Ding Cuts · 0 mapsedge DXA +10%DXA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDing Cuts remove Nuke
2. BanDXA remove Mirage
3. PickDing Cuts take Ancient
4. PickDXA take Inferno
5. BanDXA remove Overpass
6. BanDing Cuts remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
Ding Cuts 63%DXA 37%
The model gave 63% on Ding Cuts — the map was taken by DXA.
Anubisprediction missed16:12
Ding Cuts 47%DXA 53%
The model gave 53% on DXA — the map was taken by Ding Cuts.
Overpassprediction missed11:13
Ding Cuts 69%DXA 31%
The model gave 69% on Ding Cuts — the map was taken by DXA.
Model check result
Model favoriteDing Cuts · 61%
Series resultDXA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3