DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Abyssal#165 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMARKandLARRY pick
50%50%
MARKandLARRY · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Abyssal · 4 maps
MirageAbyssal pick
33%63%
MARKandLARRY · 2 mapsedge Abyssal +30%Abyssal · 4 maps
NukeAbyssal ban
50%50%
MARKandLARRY · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Abyssal · 4 maps
AnubisMARKandLARRY ban
40%40%
MARKandLARRY · 1 mapnearly even +0%Abyssal · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
MARKandLARRY · 1 mapnearly even +0%Abyssal · 1 map
Dust2Abyssal ban
50%50%
MARKandLARRY · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Abyssal · 0 maps
OverpassMARKandLARRY ban
50%67%
MARKandLARRY · 0 mapsedge Abyssal +17%Abyssal · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMARKandLARRY remove Anubis
2. BanAbyssal remove Dust2
3. PickMARKandLARRY take Inferno
4. PickAbyssal take Mirage
5. BanAbyssal remove Nuke
6. BanMARKandLARRY remove Overpass
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
MARKandLARRY 53%Abyssal 47%
The model gave 53% on MARKandLARRY — the map was taken by Abyssal.
Overpassprediction missed13:6
MARKandLARRY 31%Abyssal 69%
The model gave 69% on Abyssal — the map was taken by MARKandLARRY.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
MARKandLARRY 23%Abyssal 77%
The model gave 77% on Abyssal — the map was taken by MARKandLARRY.
Model check result
Model favoriteAbyssal · 59%
Series resultMARKandLARRY 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3