European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
aAa#132 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Young Ninjas#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2aAa pick
31%38%
aAa · 12 mapsedge Young Ninjas +7%Young Ninjas · 12 maps
NukeYoung Ninjas pick
31%75%
aAa · 9 mapsedge Young Ninjas +44%Young Ninjas · 8 maps
AncientaAa ban
20%60%
aAa · 6 mapsedge Young Ninjas +40%Young Ninjas · 6 maps
OverpassaAa ban
25%67%
aAa · 4 mapsedge Young Ninjas +42%Young Ninjas · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
60%55%
aAa · 1 mapedge aAa +5%Young Ninjas · 7 maps
InfernoYoung Ninjas ban
27%50%
aAa · 7 mapsedge Young Ninjas +23%Young Ninjas · 0 maps
MirageYoung Ninjas ban
50%30%
aAa · 0 mapsedge aAa +20%Young Ninjas · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanaAa remove Overpass
2. BanYoung Ninjas remove Inferno
3. PickaAa take Dust2
4. PickYoung Ninjas take Nuke
5. BanYoung Ninjas remove Mirage
6. BanaAa remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (60% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
aAa 46%Young Ninjas 54%
The model gave 54% on Young Ninjas — the map was taken by Young Ninjas.
Nukeprediction correct7:13
aAa 12%Young Ninjas 88%
The model gave 88% on Young Ninjas — the map was taken by Young Ninjas.
Model check result
Model favoriteYoung Ninjas · 70%
Series resultYoung Ninjas 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2