NSTLGA League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
DETONATE#196 in the world · win 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientIowa Stormboar ban
50%40%
DETONATE · 0 mapsedge DETONATE +10%Iowa Stormboar · 1 map
MirageDETONATE ban
50%40%
DETONATE · 0 mapsedge DETONATE +10%Iowa Stormboar · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanDETONATE remove Mirage
2. BanIowa Stormboar remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
DETONATE 47%Iowa Stormboar 53%
The model gave 53% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Dust2prediction missed5:13
DETONATE 53%Iowa Stormboar 47%
The model gave 53% on DETONATE — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
DETONATE 60%Iowa Stormboar 40%
The model gave 60% on DETONATE — the map was taken by DETONATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteDETONATE · 50%
Series resultDETONATE 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3