IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Monte#23 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Aurora pick
44%45%
Aurora · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Monte · 7 maps
NukeAurora ban
38%44%
Aurora · 4 mapsedge Monte +6%Monte · 5 maps
MirageMonte pick
60%63%
Aurora · 1 mapnearly even -3%Monte · 4 maps
AncientAurora ban
50%50%
Aurora · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Monte · 4 maps
AnubisMonte ban
60%60%
Aurora · 1 mapnearly even +0%Monte · 1 map
OverpassMonte ban
60%40%
Aurora · 1 mapedge Aurora +20%Monte · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAurora remove Ancient
2. BanMonte remove Overpass
3. PickAurora take Dust2
4. PickMonte take Mirage
5. BanMonte remove Anubis
6. BanAurora remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:10
Aurora 40%Monte 60%
The model gave 60% on Monte — the map was taken by Aurora.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
Aurora 53%Monte 47%
The model gave 53% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora · 75%
Series resultAurora 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2