IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8#15 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageB8 pick
56%50%
FURIA · 5 mapsedge FURIA +6%B8 · 8 maps
NukeB8 ban
44%50%
FURIA · 5 mapsedge B8 +6%B8 · 4 maps
AncientFURIA ban
50%58%
FURIA · 0 mapsedge B8 +8%B8 · 8 maps
Dust2FURIA ban
29%50%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge B8 +21%B8 · 4 maps
OverpassFURIA pick
57%63%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge B8 +6%B8 · 4 maps
InfernoB8 ban
71%67%
FURIA · 3 mapsnearly even +4%B8 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Ancient
2. BanB8 remove Nuke
3. PickFURIA take Overpass
4. PickB8 take Mirage
5. BanB8 remove Inferno
6. BanFURIA remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
FURIA 53%B8 47%
The model gave 53% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
FURIA 58%B8 42%
The model gave 58% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 71%
Series resultFURIA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2